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1 Crypto ETFs Akutaya Ndalama
1.1 Kuchokera pa Zolemba Zolowera mpaka Zakale Zotuluka
Kumayambiriro kwa 2024 kunamveka ngati mphindi ya crypto ya IPO: pa Januware 11, 2024 Owongolera aku US adagwedeza gawo loyamba la kusinthana kwa Bitcoin-traded ndalama. Pasanathe milungu inayi, zinthuzo zinasungunuka $ 10 biliyoni mu capital capital yatsopano-avareji ya $125 miliyoni patsiku-pamene Bitcoin idathamangira kumtunda watsopano wanthawi zonse.
Pofika kumapeto kwa February chisangalalo chinafika pachimake. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) idaphwanya mbiri ya ETF yachangu kwambiri $ 10 biliyoni m'zinthu - kuchita zimenezo mwachilungamo milungu isanu ndi iwiri- asanayambe kuwaza $ 20 biliyoni patatha mwezi umodzi. Komabe zomwe zidayamba ngati payipi yolowera moto zidasintha pang'onopang'ono mpaka 2024 mpaka 2025: Januware 2 2025 adakweza njira yoyamba yochotsera masiku atatu ya IBIT, yoyendetsedwa ndi $465 miliyoni kutuluka kwa tsiku limodzi, ndi kuwomboledwa kwa sabata kunapita patsogolo pagawo lonse.
1.2 Kuchuluka kwa Vuto: Bitcoin- motsutsana ndi Ethereum-Focused Products
Zotuluka sizimagawidwa mofanana. Magalimoto a Bitcoin akadali ndi gawo la mkango (≈ $ 92 biliyoni), koma amalamuliranso tepi yowombola: sabata yotha. 14 Epulo 2025 anaona $751 miliyoni kusiya Bitcoin ETFs. Zogulitsa za Ethereum zimafotokoza nkhani yosiyana—AUM yaying'ono (≈ $ 7 biliyoni) koma yosasangalatsa. Pakupita kwa masiku 11 mu Marichi adawukhira $358 miliyoni, ndi flagship Grayscale ETHE wadzipereka kuposa theka la biliyoni chaka mpaka pano pamene osunga ndalama akudandaula chifukwa cholephera kupeza zokolola zambiri.
1.3 Chithunzithunzi cha Mayendedwe Apano (Epulo 2025)
Chithunzi chotuluka chimakhalabe chosasunthika. Kubwereza kwachidule kwa masiku awiri pakati pa mwezi wa April kunathetsedwa pamene 17 Epulo zolembedwa $169.9 miliyoni mu ukonde Bitcoin ETF watuluka, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti kuchira. Zosintha mwachangu za CoinShares tsiku lililonse $ 7.2 biliyoni kuchotsedwa ku ndalama za digito kuyambira koyambirira kwa February, kufafaniza pafupifupi zonse zomwe zalowa mu 2025. Mtengo wapamwamba wa GBTC wokha wa Grayscale ukuyembekezeka kutha pafupifupi $ 20 biliyoni Chiyambireni kutembenuka - chimodzi mwazinthu zazikulu zomwe zidatuluka m'mbiri ya ETF.
| Miyeso | Jan-Feb 2024 (Launch Phase) | YTD 2025 | Sabata Yotha 14 Apr 2025 | AUM Yapano (18 Apr 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net flows - Bitcoin spot ETFs | + $10.1 biliyoni | + $215m | - $751m | ≈ $92 biliyoni |
| Net flows - Ethereum spot ETFs | N / A | - $565m | - $37.6m | ≈ $7 biliyoni |
| Kutuluka kwakukulu kwatsiku limodzi (BTC ETFs) | + $1.0 bn (28 Feb 2024) | $465m (2 Jan 2025) | $169.9m (17 Apr 2025) | - |
| Kutuluka kwa GBTC kowonjezera | - | ≈ $20 biliyoni | - | - |
2 Anatomy ya Zotuluka
2.1 Kokani Ndalama ndi Kuthamangira Pansi
Nkhondo ya chindapusa yomwe idayambika mu Januware 2024 yakhala chiwopsezo chambiri kwa omwe ali paudindo wokwera mtengo. Grayscale inagwiridwa molimba pa 1.5%, pamene adani atsopanowo adachepetsa chiŵerengero cha ndalamazo mpaka kufika pamtengo wotsika 0.12% kupyolera mu kuleka kwakanthawi. Mtengo wapakati wa spot‑Bitcoin ETF tsopano uli pansipa 0.30%. Ndi chilichonse chowonjezera chowonjezera cha kukangana, magwiridwe antchito mipata kukulitsa—kuphatikiza chaka ndi chaka ndi kupangitsa kuti kusiyana kwa malipiro kuwonekere momvetsa chisoni m’matchati obwerera. Mosadabwitsa, njira zowombola zimatsata magawo amalipiro pafupifupi m'modzi-m'modzi: GBTC yakhetsa magazi pafupifupi US $ 20 biliyoni Chiyambireni kutembenuka, pomwe anzako ochepera 0.30% akupitilizabe kukopa magawo "okhazikika" ngakhale mkati mwa milungu ingapo.
2.2 Zochepa Zamapangidwe: Palibe Kukhazikika, Palibe Zokolola
Mosiyana ndi kukhala ndi ma tokeni am'deralo pa-chain, osunga ndalama a ETF sangathe kuwononga Ethereum kapena kutenga nawo gawo pa Bitcoin layer-mapulogalamu awiri a zokolola. Ether pakali pano amapereka 3.5 - 5% kudzera mwa staking wamba; Mapulogalamu a Bitcoin "kudutsa" pa osunga ena amapereka <1%, koma ngakhale izi zimachotsedwa mu ETF wrappers. Kusiyanitsa kwa zokolola kumawononga chiwongola dzanja chonse cha magalimoto osagwira ntchito, kukankhira osunga ndalama otsogola kuti abwerere ku chain kapena kusinthanitsa kwapakati komwe kumadutsa mphotho. Zotsatira zake: ETHE ya Grayscale yawona kutuluka kosalekeza-kutha US $ 2.9 biliyoni kuyambira July 2024-ngakhale mtengo wa Ethereum uli pamwamba US $ 3,100.
2.3 Kutenga Phindu, Kuchotsera kwa NAV, ndi Kupanikizika kwa Arbitrage
Marichi 2024 US$73 k Kukwera kwa Bitcoin kudapangitsa kuti pakhale phindu loyamba. Pamene chiwombolo chinawonjezeka, GBTC inasintha kuchoka pamtengo wapatali kufika pa a -1.8% kuchotsera, pomwe ETHE idatsika -8.2%. Opanga misika adatsutsa kuchotsera uku pochepetsa ma ETF ndikugula malo, kufulumizitsa zotuluka. Hedge Ndalamazo zidayendetsanso ndalama ku CME zamtsogolo kuti zipeze kufalikira kwa maziko, kukhetsanso ETF malire. Kugulitsa kwamakina komwe kumalumikizidwa ndi kuwomboledwa kwa anthu ovomerezeka kunakulirakulira kusasinthasintha, kutembenuza mipata yaying'ono ya NAV kukhala mizere yodzikwaniritsa yokha.
2.4 Macro ndi Regulatory Headwinds
Zomata US inflation ndi Federal Reserve kulimbikira kuti "kukwezeka kwautali" kumasunga zokolola zenizeni kudzera mu Q1 2025, ndikuchepetsa kusalolera. crypto nkhani. Pakadali pano, milandu ya SEC yomwe ikupitilira motsutsana ndi kusinthana kwakukulu komanso kuchedwa kwa Congress pamalamulo okhazikika a kobiri kunapangitsa kuti pakhale kuwongolera. chiopsezo. Kunja, ku Europe misika m'malamulo a Crypto-Assets (MiCA) sanagwirizanebe ndi machitidwe aku US, ndikuchepetsa kutsatsa kwa ETP kumalire. Pazonse, ma macro-regulatory cross-currents awa adasokoneza chiwopsezo monga momwe ma ETF adataya ndalama zawo zatsopano.
| ETF | Kuchuluka kwa Mtengo | Ndalama Zopanda Phokoso | Kuchotsera/Premium (18 Apr 2025) | Zokolola Zapitirira? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mtengo wa GBTC | 1.50% | palibe | -1.8% | Ayi |
| Mtengo wa IBIT | 0.25% | 0.12% pa US $ 5 biliyoni yoyamba (miyezi 12) | + 0.1% | Ayi |
| Mtengo wa FBTC | 0.25% | Adatulutsidwa miyezi 6 yoyamba | ± 0.0 % | Ayi |
| ETHE | 1.50% | palibe | -8.2% | Ayi (sindingathe kuyika) |
3 Market Microstructure & Investor Behaviour
3.1 Kuzungulira kwa Institutional ndi Hedge-Fund Arbitrage
Capital sasiya crypto; ikuzungulira. Chiwonetsero cha data cha CME chidwi chotseguka mu ndalama-zokhazikika Bitcoin zam'tsogolo zikukwera ku mbiri 27,400 makontrakitala on 15 Epulo 2025- zofanana ndi pafupifupi 137 000 BTC or US $ 8.9 biliyoni pamitengo yomwe ilipo. Maakaunti oyang'anira chuma anali otalikirapo + 9,600 makontrakitala pamene ndalama zogwiritsidwa ntchito zinasintha -11,200 makontrakitala, kuwonetsa zonyamula zapamwamba-trade: hedge-funds tsogolo lalifupi kapena ETFs ndikugula malo kuti mukolole kufalikira kapena kuchotsera kwa NAV. Chiwombolo chilichonse chololedwa kuchokera ku GBTC amapereka ndalama zatsopano arbitrage ma desiki, omwe amawabwezeretsanso m'malo ovuta kwambiri am'tsogolo kapena zam'mphepete mwa nyanja. M'malo mwake, ndalamazo zikuchoka ku ETF wrapper kupita ku malo omwe atha kulipidwa motsika mtengo komanso osatsekeredwa mkati mwa tsiku.
3.2 Malingaliro Amalonda ndi Nkhani Zapa Media
Google Trends adapeza nthawi yofufuzira "Bitcoin ETF" at 100 pa Januware 2024 kuyambitsa chipwirikiti. Chidwi chalephera 28 Disembala, koma mpaka 34 mu Marichi 2025 - kukwera koyamba kotsatizana chaka chino. Komabe, magalimoto amakhalabe otsika kwambiri kuposa momwe amafunikira kuti athetse kugulitsa kwamakampani. Kampani yofufuza za Social-media LunarCrush logs a 61% kuchepa kwa mawu a hashtag (#BitcoinETF, #SpotETF) pakati pa Q2 2024 ndi Q1 2025. Kufotokozera kwakukulu kunachokera pa "zovomerezeka za mbiri yakale" mpaka "kulemba zotuluka" zomveka, kudyetsa chizungulire: kutuluka koyipa kumayendetsa nkhani zoipa, zomwe zimachepetsa kusuntha kwa malonda ndi retails.
3.3 Liquidity Dynamics: Kusinthana vs ETF Order Books
Pa Epulo 17, 2025, ndalama zonse zosinthira (Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, Kraken) zidasindikizidwa. US $ 34 biliyoni, chapamwamba kwambiri kuyambira pamtengo wamtengo wa Marichi, pomwe voliyumu yonse ya ma ETF khumi a US Bitcoin spot ETF inali yolondola US $ 2.1 biliyoni, pansi 39% kuyambira avareji ya February. Coinbase International's Bitcoin perpetuals yokha inathamanga US $ 100 biliyoni Pa mwezi watha, mtengo wogulitsidwa wa ETF ndi dwarfing ETF. Kuchulukitsa kwa ma Bid-ask mkati mwa maoda a ETF kwakula mpaka 4-6 maziko mfundo pamasiku opanda phokoso - milingo iwiri ya Q1 2024 - chifukwa opanga misika tsopano amayang'ana m'madziwe akuya akunyanja osati ma ETF okha. Kusagwirizana kwachibale kumapangitsanso kusokoneza tactical traders, kusiya omwe ali ndi nthawi yayitali kuti atenge ziwombolo.
| chizindikiro | Launch Frenzy (Jan 2024) | Zapano (18 Apr 2025) | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| CME Bitcoin tsogolo lotseguka | 16 700 makontrakitala | 27 400 makontrakitala | + 64% |
| Asset-manager net position (CME) | + 4 200 makontrakitala | + 9 600 makontrakitala | + 129% |
| Google Trends - "Bitcoin ETF" | 100 | 34 | -66% |
| Kutchulidwa kwa hashtag (#BitcoinETF) | Zoyambira 100 | 39 | -61% |
| Spot-exchange tsiku lililonse | US $ 22 biliyoni | US $ 34 biliyoni | + 55% |
| US Bitcoin ETF tsiku lililonse | US $ 5.4 biliyoni | US $ 2.1 biliyoni | -61% |
| Avg. ETF-funsani kufalikira | 2-3 pa | 4-6 pa | Chachikulu |
4 Competitive Landscape of Crypto ETFs
4.1 The Legacy Trusts: Grayscale's GBTC & ETHE
Grayscale idasintha zikhulupiliro zake zomwe zidatsekedwa zaka khumi kukhala zosinthana ‑traded ndalama pa Januware 11, 2024, nthawi yomweyo kulandira chuma chambiri-komanso ndondomeko yandalama zapamwamba kwambiri zamakampani (1.50%). Pambuyo potembenuka, GBTC imalamulirabe dziwe lalikulu kwambiri la Bitcoin lomwe limasungidwa ndi chinthu chimodzi (≈ 303 000 BTC ofunika ≈ US $ 21.5 biliyoni) ngakhale zitatuluka mochititsa chidwi. ETHE ikadali galimoto yodziwika bwino ya Ether (≈ 1.9 miliyoni ETH, ≈ US $ 6 biliyoni AUM) koma imakhetsa ndalama sabata iliyonse pomwe osunga ndalama akuukira chindapusa komanso kusowa kwa zokolola zapa unyolo.
Malonda a Grayscalevantage ndi kuzindikira mtundu; chidendene chake cha Achilles ndi mtengo. Mpaka malipiro otsogolera agwera pansi 0.30%, akatswiri amayembekezera kuti ndalama zachitsulo zizitsika pang'onopang'ono kupita ku zokulunga zotsika mtengo.
4.2 Otsutsa Ochepa: BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise
BlackRock IBIT khazikitsani kamvekedwe kake ndi kutsika kwambiri 0.25% chindapusa cha mutu wankhani ndi kusiya kwa miyezi khumi ndi iwiri ndikuchepetsa ndalama zoyambira US $5 biliyoni 0.12%. Wolemba 18 Epulo 2025 thumba ili pansipa US $ 23 biliyoni AUM, kutenga gawo la mkango la zotsalira zotsalira ngakhale m'masabata opanda chiopsezo.
Fidelity FBTC ikuwonetsa zachuma za IBIT (ndalama za 0.25%, kuchotsera kwa miyezi isanu ndi umodzi) ndipo wasonkhanitsa ≈ US $ 15 biliyoni. Mtengo wapatali wa magawo BITB anapita wina bwino: okhazikika 0.20% mtengo - kuchotsedwa 0.00% pa US $ 1 biliyoni yoyamba mpaka Januware 2026-kuthandizira kudutsa US $ 5 biliyoni chizindikiro. Zogulitsazi zimaloleza ogulitsa nthawi yayitali okha monga Olembetsa Investment Alangizi, omwe ambiri mwa iwo ali ndi nzeru zoyika ndalama mu ETFs ndi sub-0.40 % chiŵerengero cha ndalama zonse.
4.3 Mini Trust, Derivatives, ndi Active Crypto ETFs mu Pipeline
Opereka gawo lachiwiri akuyang'ana ma niches: ARK 21Shares (ARKB) ndi Invesco Galaxy (BTCO) perekani ndalama zochepa zotsatsavantages (0.21% -0.25%) kuphatikiza zokutira za ESG. VanEck's HODL ndi BRRR ya Valkyrie adzigulitsa okha ngati "Bitcoin purist" amasewera omwe amasinthasintha pafupipafupi kuti achepetse kutchinga.
Tikuyembekezera, olembetsa angapo (Franklin Templeton, WisdomTree) adalemba "staking-enabled" Ethereum ETFs zomwe zitha kugawa gawo la mphotho za validator. Pakadali pano, CFTC-regulated futures complex imathandizira kukula kwa Bitcoin yoyendetsedwa mwachangu. strategy ndalama (mwachitsanzo, BITX, MAX) zomwe zimasintha pakati pa zam'tsogolo ndi ndalama kuti muchepetse kusakhazikika.
| Sungani | Mtsitsi | Asset Focus | Tsiku loyamba | Kuchuluka kwa Mtengo | AUM (18 Apr 2025) | Mtengo wa magawo YTD Net Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mtengo wa GBTC | Grayscale | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 (kutembenuka) | 1.50% | US $ 21.5 biliyoni | - US $ 19.9 biliyoni |
| ETHE | Grayscale | Ethereum | 11 Jan 2024 (kutembenuka) | 1.50% | US $ 6.0 biliyoni | - US $ 2.3 biliyoni |
| Mtengo wa IBIT | BlackRock | Bitcoin | Januware 11, 2024 | 0.25% (0.12%) | US $ 23.0 biliyoni | + US $ 3.4 biliyoni |
| Mtengo wa FBTC | kukhulupirika | Bitcoin | Januware 11, 2024 | 0.25% | US $ 15.1 biliyoni | + US $ 1.9 biliyoni |
| Mtengo wa BITB | Pang'ono ndi pang'ono | Bitcoin | Januware 11, 2024 | 0.20% (0 % kuchotsera ku US $ 1 bn) | US $ 5.2 biliyoni | + US $ 1.2 biliyoni |
| Mtengo wa ARKB | ARK 21 Shares | Bitcoin | Januware 11, 2024 | 0.21% | US $ 3.3 biliyoni | + US $ 0.7 biliyoni |
| Mtengo wa BTCO | Invesco Galaxy | Bitcoin | Januware 11, 2024 | 0.25% | US $ 2.1 biliyoni | + US $ 0.4 biliyoni |
| HODL | VanEck | Bitcoin | Januware 11, 2024 | 0.20% | US $ 1.4 biliyoni | + US $ 0.3 biliyoni |
| BRRR | Valkyrie | Bitcoin | Januware 11, 2024 | 0.25% | US $ 0.9 biliyoni | + US $ 0.2 biliyoni |
Ziwerengerozi zikuwonetsa msika womwe uli ndi magawo awiri: cholowa chimakhulupirira kuti chiwongola dzanja chikuchepa chifukwa cha chiwongola dzanja, pomwe omwe ali ndi ndalama zotsika amaphatikiza magawo ndi zinthu zina zomwe zimakhala ndi ma angles apadera monga ESG kapena yogwira ntchito. kukonza ngozi.
5 Mwayi Pakati pa Kukhetsa Magazi
5.1 Kuchotsera-ku-NAV Arbitrage Strategies
Kuchotsera kwa -1% mpaka -2% pa GBTC ndi -8% pa ETHE zitha kuwoneka zocheperako pambali pa mipata ya manambala awiri a nthawi yodalirika, komabe amamasulirabe kukhala alpha watanthauzo wa ma hedge-fund desk omwe amatha kugula magawo a ETF, kuwombola ndalama zachitsulo, ndikugulitsa pa-chain. Kwa ogulitsa malonda opanda mwayi wololeza-otenga nawo mbali, kungogula magawo omwe ali pansi pa mtengo wamtengo wapatali kumapereka mwayi wosakanikirana ndi malo. Maphunziro akale obwezeretsa akuwonetsa kuchotsera kwa GBTC kumachepera 0.5% pa nthawi ya kuphulika kwatsopano, kutanthauza kuthekera + 150 maziko-mfundo kusowa kwa magwiridwe antchito ngati mafunde atuluka. Otsatsa amayenera kutsatira zakudya zatsiku ndi tsiku za premium/zochotsera kuchokera kwa omwe amapereka ndi ma analytics a ETF dashboards ndikukonzekera kutembenuza ndalama mwachangu.
5.2 Kukolola Msonkho-Kutayika & Kukonzanso Magawo
Cryptocurrency amakhala kunja kwa US lamulo lochapa, kutanthauza kuti wogulitsa akhoza kugulitsa Bitcoin ETF, kuzindikira kutayika kwa likulu, ndikugulanso kuwonekera kwa Bitcoin-kaya ndi mpikisano wocheperako kapena kusunga mwachindunji-osadikira masiku 30. Kutsekeka kumeneku kutsekeka kamodzi Congress ikagwirizanitsa crypto ndi malamulo achitetezo, koma kuyambira Epulo 2025 imapanga mwayi wosowa waulere kuti muthetse zopindula zina za 2025 mukukhalabe ndi ndalama zonse. Ma allocators apamwamba amaphatikiza kukolola kotayika ndi mtengo arbitrage: yeretsani kutayika kwa GBTC, samukira ku thumba la 0.25 %, ndikutenga ndalama zonse za msonkho za alpha ndi zolipiritsa pachaka.
5.3 Kudula-Kudula Mchira: Momwe Ndondomeko yaNdalama Ingatembenuzire Script
Misika ya Futures tsopano ikupereka ≈ 70 % zovuta pa mlingo woyamba wa Federal-Reserve womwe unadulidwa ndi a July 2025 Msonkhano wa FOMC, ndi traders mitengo yowonjezereka 50 maziko za kuchepetsa pakutha kwa chaka. Zokolola zenizeni zotsika zimayenderana ndi machitidwe olimba a crypto pomwe mtengo wa mwayi wokhala ndi katundu wosabereka ukutsika. Muyenera Kukhuta pivot, bajeti zachiwopsezo zapenshoni ndi ndalama zazachuma zambiri zitha kutumizidwanso ku ma proxies amadzimadzi kwambiri a crypto-malo omwe ma ETFs - kubwezeranso kuchotsera ndikubweza kutulutsa kwa YTD.
5.4 Ma Staking-Enabled or Hybrid Funds: The Next Product Wave?
Zoyang'anira patsogolo zimasonyeza kuti kupititsa patsogolo sikulinso loto lakutali. Mu Epulo 2025 SEC idavomereza zosintha zomwe zikuyembekezeredwa mu - mtundu Kuwombola ndikuyika ndalama za Ethereum ETFs kuchokera ku Fidelity ndi Franklin Templeton, ngakhale bungweli silinasaine. Zolemba zofananira za Solana komanso ndalama za "crypto ndalama" zamitundu yambiri zimatchuliratu mphotho zovomerezeka. Ngati zivomerezedwa, ma hybrids awa angagwetse kusiyana pakati pa umwini wa chain ndi ETFs, zomwe mwina zingayambitse kugawikana kwazinthu zatsopano - makamaka kuchokera ku mabungwe omwe amangokhala '40 Act structures.
| Chikondi | Mkhalidwe Wapano (18 Apr 2025) | 12‑Kuthekera kwa Mwezi | Potential Investor Asuntha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kuchotsera kwa GBTC/ETHE kumatanthauza-kubweza | -1% / -8% | 60% | Sungani pansi pa NAV; hedge ndi zam'tsogolo |
| Kusamba kwapang'onopang'ono kulibe | Palibe lamulo la masiku 30 pa crypto | 50 % mwayi wotseka pofika 2026 | Kutayika kwa zokolola; sinthani ku ETF yotsika mtengo |
| Kuchepetsa mtengo wa Fed | 70 % mwayi pofika Jul 2025 | 70% | Wonjezerani kuwonekera kwa cyclical crypto |
| Ma ETF omwe amathandizidwa ndi Staking | SEC ikuwunikanso mafayilo | 40% | Perekani kwa opereka chilolezo msanga; khala pa-chain pakanthawi |
6 Katswiri Wowunika & Kusanthula Zochitika (2025-2026)
6.1 Mlandu Woyambira: Kuphatikiza Pambali
Akatswiri ambiri amawona nthawi yozizira osati kuwonongeka. Pansi pazimenezi, ndondomeko yazachuma yaku US imachepetsa pang'onopang'ono - imodzi kapena ziwiri 25 maziko kuchepetsa kuyambira kumapeto kwa 2025-kusunga zokolola zenizeni koma zopanda chilango. Bitcoin ndi Ethereum oscillate mkati mwazovomerezeka zovomerezeka (BTC US $55 k–80 k, ETH US $2 .7 k–4 k). Kuponderezana kwa chindapusa pazogulitsa zakale kukupitilira, pomwe Grayscale ikukakamizidwa pansipa 1.00% ndi Q4 koma ndikutaya zinthu zochepa kwa anzawo otsika mtengo. Net spot-ETF imayenda mozungulira pafupifupi ziro: masiku olowera ndi masiku otuluka m'malo mosinthana, kusiya chaka chonse cha 2025 mokhazikika pambuyo pa kukhetsa kwankhanza kwa Q1. Kuchotsera kumakhazikika panjira yopapatiza (GBTC -1 % mpaka -0.5 %; ETHE -6 % mpaka -4 %) monga ovomerezeka-otenga nawo mbali amapezerapo mwayi arbitrate mipata ina ili yonse. Malingaliro amsika amakhalabe omanga mochenjera, kudikirira chothandizira - kumveka bwino kwamalamulo kapena kuchepetsa kwakukulu - kuti athetseretu.
6.2 Mlandu wa Ng'ombe: Kumveka Kwadongosolo + Kuphatikizika kwa Staking + Kudula Mtengo
Chomeracho chimakhala ndi masamba atatu obiriwira. Choyamba, Congress imayang'anira kasamalidwe kazinthu za digito zomwe zimayika pachiwopsezo malamulo osungira komanso zowunikira zobiriwira mkati mwa ndalama za '40 Act. Chachiwiri, Federal Reserve front-loads kufewetsa, kudula mitengo ndi 75 maziko isanafike Disembala 2025 ndikuwonetsa kusalowerera ndale. Pomaliza, SEC imavomereza kuwombola kwa in-kind Ethereum ETF ndikulola opereka kuti adutse mphotho zazikulu. Capital kusefukira kwa madzi: cumulative spot-ETF kulowanso kwabweza US $ 25 biliyoni, kufufuta zonse zomwe zatuluka kale. Mtengo wapatali wa magawo GBTC 0.25% imathetsa kuchotsera kwathunthu, ndikuyendetsa mtengo wocheperako. Bitcoin imapanga kukwera kwatsopano kwanthawi zonse pamwambapa US $95 k, yokhala ndi ma voliyumu pa unyolo wowonetsedwa ndi mbiri US $ 9 biliyoni ma ETFs amasintha tsiku lililonse. Zitsanzo zamasukulu - makamaka penshoni zaku US zomwe zimafunikira ma ETF - zimapereka zowonjezera 0.2% ku crypto m'magawo osiyanasiyana, kukhazikitsa gulu lazinthu.
6.3 Mlandu wa Chimbalangondo: Chiwopsezo Chowonjezera, Kufinyira-Kulipiritsa & Zambiri Zotuluka
Nkhani yotsikirapo ili ndi kukwera kwamitengo yokhazikika komanso Ndalama zomwe zimachedwetsa kutsika mpaka 2026. Mitengo yeniyeni imakhalabe pamwamba. 2%, makampani a madola, ndi chiopsezo cha geopolitical (mwachitsanzo, kugwedezeka kwamphamvu kwatsopano) kumapangitsa kuti pakhale ngozi zambiri. Nkhondo zolipira za ETF zikuchulukirachulukira: Bitwise amatsika mpaka 0.10%, Fidelity imachotsa chindapusa chaka china, ndipo Grayscale imathandizira 0.25% komabe akuyenda pamayendedwe. Omwe ali ndi chilolezo amawombola mwaukali, kukoka wina US $ 30 biliyoni kuchokera ku ndalama za Bitcoin ndi US $ 4 biliyoni kuchokera ku ndalama za Ether. Popanda njira yodziwikiratu, ma ETF omwe amathandizira kukhazikika komanso njira zina zopezera ndalama. GBTC ndi ETHE zimakhazikika pakuchotsera kwakukulu (-3 % ndi -10 % motsatira) pomwe Bitcoin ikukula mpaka US $42 k ndi Ethereum kuti US $1.8 k. Pansi pa kupsinjika uku, chotulutsa chimodzi chaching'ono chimatseka malonda ake chifukwa chakusakhazikika kwa sub-scale AUM.
| Chitsanzo | Madalaivala Achinsinsi | 2025-End Net ETF Flows | Mtengo wapatali wa magawo BTC | Mtengo wapatali wa magawo ETH | Mtengo wa GBTC | Mwina* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Kuchepetsa kwapang'onopang'ono kwa Fed, kupanikizana kwa chindapusa, palibe staking | ± US $2 biliyoni | 55 k-80 k | 2.7 k-4 k | -1% mpaka -0.5% | 50% |
| ng'ombe | Kuchepetsa mwamakani, kuvomereza kokhazikika, zolemba zomveka | + US $ 25 biliyoni | 80 k-100 k | 4 k-6 k | 0% mpaka +1% | 30% |
| chimbalangondo | Palibe zochepetsera mitengo, ziwopsezo zapadziko lonse lapansi, nkhondo yowopsa | - US $ 30 biliyoni | 35 k-55 k | 1.8 k-3 k | -3% mpaka -5% | 20% |
7 Investor Action Plan
7.1 Mndandanda Woyang'anira Mwakhama Pakuwunika Ma Crypto ETF
Musanagawire ndalama zatsopano - kapena kuzungulira papepala lokwera mtengo - gwiritsani ntchito sikirini mwadongosolo:
- Chiwerengero cha Ndalama Zonse (TER) - chandamale ≤ 0.30 % pakuwonetsa pachimake. Kusiyana kulikonse kwa 10 bps kumawononga ≈ 0.6 % ya kuchuluka kwa magwiridwe antchito pazaka zisanu.
- Kusakhazikika kwa Premium / Discount - kuwunikanso kupatuka kwapakati pa masiku 30 kuchokera ku NAV; gulu lolimba (<0.4%) likuwonetsa zochitika zovomerezeka zovomerezeka.
- Liquidity Metrics - pafupifupi tsiku lililonse voliyumu ya dollar ≥ US $ 50 miliyoni ndi kufalikira pazithunzi ≤ 4 bps kuti azichita bwino.
- Woyang'anira & Inshuwaransi - kutsimikizira kusungidwa kosungirako zoziziritsa kuwirikiza kapena kolekanitsa, komanso kuwunikira mfundo zaupandu; IBIT ndi FBTC amagwiritsa ntchito Coinbase Custody ndi inshuwaransi yotayika kwambiri ya US $ 200 miliyoni.
- Gawani - Kapangidwe Kapangidwe - zopangidwa mwachifundo/zowombola zimachepetsa kutayikira kwa msonkho; njira zopezera ndalama zokha zimabweretsa kutsika kwa malonda mkati mwa thumba.
- Paipi Yoyang'anira - opereka omwe akudikirira zosintha pakuwombola kapena kuwomboledwa kwamtundu wa ETH akuyenera kulipidwa.
7.2 ETF Exposure vs Direct Custody vs Staking Platforms
| Umunthu | Malingaliro a kampani Spot-Crypto ETF | Chikwama Chodzisunga Chokha | Chizindikiro cha On-Chain Staking/Liquid-Staking |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zotuluka | Palibe (mpaka kuthandizidwa) | palibe | 3.5 - 5 % ETH; 2 - 4% SOL |
| Regulatory Clarity | Wapamwamba (SEC-olembetsa) | Wapakati (kudzinenera wekha) | Kutsika mpaka pakati (kudalira ulamuliro) |
| Counter-party Risk | Custodian bankruptcy + chiwopsezo chopereka | Zolakwika za ogwiritsa ntchito / kuwonongeka kwa zida | Smart-contract & validator slashing |
| Kuvuta kwa Misonkho (US) | 1099‑B chinthu cha mzere umodzi | Fomu 8949 pa tx iliyonse | Zopeza wamba + zopeza ndalama zambiri |
| Chomasuka Ntchito | Dinani pa brokerage | Pamafunika kasamalidwe ka chikwama | Zofunika Defi luso |
Upangiri: Gwiritsani ntchito ma ETF kuti muwonetsere muakaunti yopuma pantchito kapena upangiri; kudzisungira pazachuma kwanthawi yayitali; pa-chain staking pofunafuna zokolola, tech-savvy capital.
7.3 Kukula Kwamalo, Kuwongolera Zowopsa, ndi Kusinthanso Windows
- Core-Satellite Framework - kapu okwana crypto pa 2 - 5 % ya zosiyanasiyana mbiri. Perekani 70 % ya gawolo ku Bitcoin ETFs (core) ndi 30% kumasewera a satellite (staking ETH, liquid-staking tokens, kapena apamwamba-beta alt-ETFs).
- Volatility Bajeti - chiwopsezo chofanana ndi chandamale: perekani malingaliro a crypto kotero kuti tsiku lililonse VaR ikufanana ndi 20 % malo. Sinthani kukula kwa kotala kutengera kusakhazikika komwe kumazindikirika.
- Rebalancing Ndandanda - kalendala-kukonzanso kotala kumatanthawuza-kubwerera; zoyambitsa mkati mwa kotala pa ± 150 bps za kuchuluka kwa kuchotsera kwa NAV zitha kulungamitsa mwanzeru trades pakati mankhwala.
- Stop-Loss & Hedge Tools - gwiritsani ntchito CME yaying'ono Bitcoin zam'tsogolo pobisala kumbuyo; 1 BTC yaying'ono ikufanana ndi 0.01 BTC, kulola kufalikira kwa granular motsutsana ndi ma ETF popanda kuyambitsa zovuta zogulitsa.
7.4 Flow Data & Fee-Sinthani Ma Dashboards kukhala Monitor
- CoinShares Weekly Digital-Asset Fund Ikuyenda (lofalitsidwa Lolemba) - chithunzithunzi chapamwamba cha machitidwe a bungwe.
- Farside Investors ETF Dashboard - kulenga/kuwombola nthawi yeniyeni ndi ma chart a IBIT, GBTC, FBTC, ETHE, ndi ena.
- Bloomberg Terminal Ntchito - mamapu otentha ophatikizana m'malo osiyanasiyana komanso kufalikira kwa NAV.
- Zolemba Zotulutsa (SEC EDGAR) - tsatirani zowonjezera za S-1 kapena 497K zochepetsera chindapusa ndi kusintha kwamapangidwe (mwachitsanzo, zosintha zomwe zikudikirira).
- On-Chain Glassnode & Dune Analytics Boards - kuyang'anira kayendetsedwe ka ndalama pambuyo powombola kuti muwone kuthamanga kwa arb.
| Investor Archetype | Portfolio Cholinga | Magalimoto ovomerezeka | Ma KPI Ofunika Kuwonera | Nthawi zambiri zochita |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RIA Yosamva Malipiro | Kuwonetsedwa kwa Passive BTC mkati mwa IRAs | IBIT / FBTC (≤ 0.25 % TER) | Premium / kuchotsera; zidziwitso zandalama | Ndemanga ya theka-pachaka |
| Yield-Hunter Family Office | Kuwonekera kwathunthu kwa ETH | Dikirani ETF yothandizidwa ndi staking; Lido stETH | Kuchuluka kwa APR; Nthawi yovomerezeka ya SEC | pamwezi |
| Tactical Hedge-Fund | Discount-capture arbitrage | GBTC yayitali, tsogolo lalifupi la CME BTC | kuchotsera> 1%; kufalikira kwa maziko | Kupitirira |
| Mtengo wa HODLer | Zosavuta "kugula & kuiwala" crypto sleeve | 70% IBIT, 30% Cold-chikwama ETH | Kutsika kwa mtengo; inshuwaransi yosungidwa | Chaka chilichonse |
| Pension-Bound Pension | Reg-heavy, liquid proxy | Large-cap ETF basket (IBIT, FBTC) | Daily liquidity; AUM ≥ US $ 10 biliyoni | Quarterly |
8 Mapeto - Dead End kapena Version 2.0?
8.1 Kodi Kukhetsa Magazi kwa 2025 Kumatanthauza Chiyani Kwenikweni
Chaka choyamba cha Crypto pansi pa kuwonekera kwa ETF kunatsimikizira zinthu ziwiri nthawi imodzi: chidwi cha Investor chikhoza kuchitika pa liwiro la mbiri, ndipo likulu limatha kuthawa mwamsanga pamene mapangidwe, malipiro, ndi macro ziwombana. Kusintha kochititsa chidwi kuchokera $ 10 biliyoni mu Januware 2024 zimalowa zambiri $500 miliyoni - kuphatikiza Kutuluka kwa mlungu uliwonse mu 2025 sichigamulo chochepa pagulu lazachuma kuposa kuyesa kupsinjika kwa msika wazinthu. Zovala zomangika kwambiri, zokolola ziro, ndi kusatsimikizika kwa mfundo zidapangitsa gulu loyambilira la ma ETF kukhala mawilo ophunzitsira-osati mabungwe othamanga othamanga omwe amangofuna.
8.2 Evolutions Akuyenda kale
Kuponderezana kwa chindapusa ndikosavuta komanso kosasinthika: wopereka aliyense pansipa 0.30% ikukopabe zinthu zomata, pomwe chilichonse chili pamwambapa 1% magazi. Oyang'anira ayamba kuchita nawo ntchito zowombola mwachifundo komanso zimango za staking. Malo omwe amapangidwa akutenga ndalama zomwe ma ETF sanabwerenso - koma kusiyana kumeneku kudzachepa ngati zinthu zitha kubweretsa zokolola komanso kufalikira kocheperako. Mipikisano yambiri imakhalabe yofunika kwambiri: Federal Reserve ikangowonetsa kuti kuchepetsedwa, mtengo wamtengo wapatali wa Bitcoin wosapereka utsika, ndikubwezeretsa ma ETF opangidwa bwino m'malo abwino kwambiri oyendetsera ntchito.
8.3 Mafunso Otsogolera Musanagunde "Gulani"
Kodi zolipira kudya alpha yanu mwachangu kuposa momwe ma bitcoins amapangitsira kusowa?
Kodi thumba lothandizira kapena la hybrid lingasinthe kukula kwanu?
Kodi malingaliro anu amatengera kuchuluka kwafupipafupi kwa Fed-ndipo Plan B ndi chiyani ngati ndondomeko ikhala yolimba?
Kodi mwakonzeka kuyang'anira kuchotsera kwa NAV tsiku lililonse, kapena kukhazikitsidwa-ndi-kuyiwala kusunga kusunga kukhala kokwanira bwino?
8.4 Kuyang'ana M'tsogolo: Mtundu wa 2.0 Playbook
Yembekezerani m'badwo wotsatira wa crypto ETFs kuti musokoneze mzere pakati pa kuwonekera kwapang'onopang'ono ndi kutenga nawo mbali pa unyolo. Mitundu yosakanizidwa yomwe imadutsa pazokolola zambiri kapena zowonjezera, ndandanda zolipirira zomwe zimapindulitsa omwe ali ndi nthawi yayitali, komanso mindandanda ku Europe ndi Asia zitha kusintha zachilendo za 2024 kukhala mbiri yakale ya 2026. Otsatsa omwe adapirira kugwa kwa 2025 atha kudzipeza ali pachiwopsezo pomwe Version 2.0 ikangokhazikitsidwa - bola ngati asankha, akudziwa zandalama, komanso odziwa zambiri.
